Date: 11/23/21 6:41 pm
From: Nick Bolgiano <nickbolgiano...>
Subject: Re: Golden Eagle Cumulative Charts for 5 hawk watches
I forgot to mention that the thick gold lines represent 2021.

On Tue, Nov 23, 2021 at 9:36 PM Nick Bolgiano <nickbolgiano...>

> In the same way that I have created cumulative count charts for Golden
> Eagles at the Tussey Mt spring count, I have done the same for 5 fall
> counts. Very interesting results.
> At Waggoner's Gap and Stone Mt, this years's GE count is tracking the
> long-term average and almost at the long-term average for Hawk Mt.
> However, for Franklin Mt, NY, and Allegheny Front, this year's count is
> way behind the long-term average. If we had many years of data for Bald
> Eagle Mt, I believe that we would see the same pattern.
> I think that the difference is between those sites that typically benefit
> by eagles drifting on moderate winds vs. those sites that typically benefit
> by blasts of strong cold fronts. Some of this cold front description may
> apply to what has happened to the north of us, where the late eagles are
> hanging out.
> I don't believe that it is an equal-sum game - that Wag Gap-Hawk Mt-Stone
> Mt gain matches the Franklin-Bald Eagle-All Fr loss. It is just that
> conditions have given one set of sites their average, while leaving the
> other set of sites with fewer than expected. In 2019, it was the opposite
> case for Wag Gap-Hawk Mt vs. Bald Eagle. I had been hoping more for a
> typical year, as we aren't able to do the Bald Eagle Mt count often, but it
> all provides learning.
> In some years, especially 2018, the winds benefit all (except All Front,
> but that site is an outlier because it is so highly dependent upon E/SE
> winds). Franklin Mt is also a bit of an odd case for a similar reason -
> chance plays a large role in their counts.
> Nick Bolgiano

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