Date: 11/23/21 6:37 pm From: Nick Bolgiano <nickbolgiano...> Subject: Golden Eagle Cumulative Charts for 5 hawk watches
In the same way that I have created cumulative count charts for Golden Eagles at the Tussey Mt spring count, I have done the same for 5 fall counts. Very interesting results.
At Waggoner's Gap and Stone Mt, this years's GE count is tracking the long-term average and almost at the long-term average for Hawk Mt.
However, for Franklin Mt, NY, and Allegheny Front, this year's count is way behind the long-term average. If we had many years of data for Bald Eagle Mt, I believe that we would see the same pattern.
I think that the difference is between those sites that typically benefit by eagles drifting on moderate winds vs. those sites that typically benefit by blasts of strong cold fronts. Some of this cold front description may apply to what has happened to the north of us, where the late eagles are hanging out.
I don't believe that it is an equal-sum game - that Wag Gap-Hawk Mt-Stone Mt gain matches the Franklin-Bald Eagle-All Fr loss. It is just that conditions have given one set of sites their average, while leaving the other set of sites with fewer than expected. In 2019, it was the opposite case for Wag Gap-Hawk Mt vs. Bald Eagle. I had been hoping more for a typical year, as we aren't able to do the Bald Eagle Mt count often, but it all provides learning.
In some years, especially 2018, the winds benefit all (except All Front, but that site is an outlier because it is so highly dependent upon E/SE winds). Franklin Mt is also a bit of an odd case for a similar reason - chance plays a large role in their counts.