Date: 11/23/21 6:37 pm
From: Nick Bolgiano <nickbolgiano...>
Subject: Golden Eagle Cumulative Charts for 5 hawk watches
In the same way that I have created cumulative count charts for Golden
Eagles at the Tussey Mt spring count, I have done the same for 5 fall
counts. Very interesting results.

At Waggoner's Gap and Stone Mt, this years's GE count is tracking the
long-term average and almost at the long-term average for Hawk Mt.

However, for Franklin Mt, NY, and Allegheny Front, this year's count is way
behind the long-term average. If we had many years of data for Bald Eagle
Mt, I believe that we would see the same pattern.

I think that the difference is between those sites that typically benefit
by eagles drifting on moderate winds vs. those sites that typically benefit
by blasts of strong cold fronts. Some of this cold front description may
apply to what has happened to the north of us, where the late eagles are
hanging out.

I don't believe that it is an equal-sum game - that Wag Gap-Hawk Mt-Stone
Mt gain matches the Franklin-Bald Eagle-All Fr loss. It is just that
conditions have given one set of sites their average, while leaving the
other set of sites with fewer than expected. In 2019, it was the opposite
case for Wag Gap-Hawk Mt vs. Bald Eagle. I had been hoping more for a
typical year, as we aren't able to do the Bald Eagle Mt count often, but it
all provides learning.

In some years, especially 2018, the winds benefit all (except All Front,
but that site is an outlier because it is so highly dependent upon E/SE
winds). Franklin Mt is also a bit of an odd case for a similar reason -
chance plays a large role in their counts.

Nick Bolgiano

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