Date: 12/30/18 1:22 pm
From: Craig Miller <gismiller...>
Subject: [obol] Re: Winter Barn Swallow in Central Oregon
Hi all,

This ongoing discussion has been interesting. To add to everything that has
been said, Crook County's first Black Phoebe (discovered last month at
Crooked River Wetlands) continues to be in the area, and I observed several
flying insects (midges?) during yesterday's hike there. The Phoebe was
actively flycatching along the river.

I think the generally higher temperatures are allowing more insect
survival, which in turn allow insectivores such as swallows and
flycatchers to be able to survive further north than their recent historic

Craig Miller


On Sun, Dec 30, 2018 at 1:10 PM <clearwater...> wrote:

> The attached plot (produced from the WestMap climate analysis website)
> might be helpful for considering the effects of climate change on winter
> survival of wayward Barn Swallows in central Oregon.
> The plot shows mean temperatures for the month of January in Deschutes
> County, from 1920 through 2017.
> During the 70-year period from 1920 through 1990, the mean January
> temperature exceeded 34 F only twice (in 1934 and 1953). Since 1990 --
> approximately when the predicted effects of anthropogenic climate change
> began to become discernible from background variations -- this value has
> been exceeded six times. Four of those times were in the past seven years.
> In other words, relatively warm months of January have been much more
> frequent in the past couple of decades.
> Cold months of January have also been less frequent. The mean January
> temperature has dipped below 27 F only three times since 1990 (1 in 6
> years), whereas prior to 1990 this happened in about 1 out of 4 years.
> --
> Joel Geier
> Camp Adair area north of Corvallis

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