Date: 4/13/18 6:23 am
From: Andrew Mason <andymason...> [osbirds] <osbirds...>
Subject: [osbirds] Migration weather
From Dave Nicosia--birder and NWS meteorologist in Binghamton--on
potential bird migration today through Sunday.

Andy Mason

********************************************

Last night there was massive migration in the eastern U.S that
stopped in northern NY state where there was a rather diffuse front.
Not sure if there will be any significant concentration of migrants.
This morning as of this writing the front at the surface is across
the northern counties of PA and then drops southeast south of the
Catskills. At about 5000 feet up the front is farther north roughly
from Buffalo to south of Albany but again it is not a very sharp
front yet. At about 10000 feet up the winds are from the west and
its hard to find any front. So what this means is that birds that
migrate between 5000 and 10000 feet and up probably will keep going
unless they encounter precipitation. At this point there isn't much
precipitation near NY or in the northeast U.S. Once the storm
intensifies in the Midwest and pulls east, the front at all levels
up to 10-15 thousand feet will sharpen up and precipitation will
spread east.

Right now it looks like the surface front will lift back north to
the southern tier of NY state today but the precipitation will
stream across northern NY so I wouldn't expect too much just
arrivals and some pockets of migrants.

For tonight, the precipitation and associated front aloft shifts
south and looks to be setting up from about Buffalo to Albany and it
will be raining north of this. The surface front will actually drop
south into northern PA but it will be shallow as the precipitation
will be farther north. So I would expect best conditions across
upstate NY north of the southern tier, which includes the Finger
Lakes area, and Buffalo to Albany.

Its hard enough to predict the weather so trying to predict what the
birds will do is even harder. Hopefully some of this will pan out.

Good Luck!
Dave Nicosia

-- Andrew Mason 1039 Peck St. Jefferson, NY 12093 (607) 652-2162
<AndyMason...>


 
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