Date: 10/28/26 8:16 am From: Peter Pyle via groups.io <ppyle...> Subject: Re: [EBB-Sightings] Birding this winter and Kelvin Wave affected Tides Another observation.
Good stuff Al,
Another short-term effect on ocean and bay water levels is barometric pressure, which can cause variation by up to a foot between the lowest and highest pressures we see in California. Higher water occurs with lower pressure which also, unfortunately, accompanies larger storms and wave surges. Hopefully we won't have all of these things combine with the holiday king tides this season.
Daniel Swain/Weather West is a great source of more detailed scientific information on the coming Nino and it's potential impacts. I recommend following his blog and watching the webinar linked at the end of this one.
On 10/28/2026 7:36 AM, Alvaro Jaramillo via groups.io wrote: > > Claude et al. > > This is really a message that can be ignored as it does not change > the issue of the high tides/flooding at all. But perhaps some will > find the details interesting. The Kelvin waves are an effect of the El > Niño where water that has been in the western Pacific sloshes back > east, and then north and south when it hits the continent. They are > not like a tsunami but are slow moving and create an increase in the > sea level height that can last for quite some time. More Kelvin Waves > are on their way, the El Niño has not peaked yet. BUT, here is the > part that I find fascinating. The main effect of higher water levels > in the ocean in central and southern California is mainly due to the > warmer water making the water expand! There is so much additional heat > in the California coastal waters that the water is taking up a greater > volume solely due to the immense volume that is warmer (much warmer) > than normal. This is unlikely to decrease any time soon. So you have > the KW (Kelvin Waves), the warm water additional volume, first King > tides around Thanksgiving (with two more in winter)…. And possibly > wind and storms that may increase water levels. This could be a > disaster for those in low lying areas, but for birders it is a great > chance to try and find species that are normally hidden in the salt > marshes during those king tides. > > So it is not all the KW, the water temperature has a massive > effect. Making lemons out of lemonade, I hope folks use the info that > Claude gave to find some neat birds in the next high tide cycle. > > Alvaro > > Alvaro Jaramillo > > <alvaro...> <mailto:<alvaro...> > > www.alvarosadventures.com <http://www.alvarosadventures.com> > > *From:*<EBB-Sightings...> <EBB-Sightings...> *On Behalf Of > *Marcus via groups.io > *Sent:* Wednesday, October 28, 2026 12:32 AM > *To:* EBB Sightings <ebb-sightings...>; <cmlyneis...> > *Subject:* Re: [EBB-Sightings] Birding this winter and Kelvin Wave > affected Tides Another observation. > > The airport Channel by the Oakland Airport was pretty flooded at 1:20 > PM yesterday with water covering part of the watermelon. > > A friend of mine today reported no beach at Dillon Beach during high > tide. > > *Marcus Pun* > Video Editor / Producer/Editor / Camera > C: 510-384-8085 | H: 510-530-2507 > Oakland, CA > > On Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 08:38:02 PM PDT, Claude Lyneis via > groups.io <cmlyneis...> wrote: > > I went out to the Stege Marsh/Meeker Slough on Monday Oct 26 to see > how high the tides would be affected by the Kelvin Wave now hitting > the West Coast. The predicted height, not including the Kelvin Wave, > was about 6.6 feet at about 12:05. The KW is expected to add at least > 1 ft in the bay and this was seen on the Embarcadero in SF. > > It was as high as the King Tides in December and January in other > years . The tide, which had turned Stege Marsh into a lake, is shown > in a photo included below. > > Most of the usual shorebirds were missing and not visible on the > breakwater rocks off shore. There were some Snowy Egrets and Great > Egrets. A Kestrel flew over and hovered briefly and I got some photos > of that. On the island off the mouth of Meeker Slough, I was able to > photograph 5 Wilson’s Snipes. They were not visible with the naked > eye, but at 600 mm, I found them as has been true on earlier King Tides. > > If the Kelvin Wave continues through the early winter, the tides are > likely to be enormous at Christmas and late January and will be a > factor in birding the shorelines. > > Flickr Album with three photos.--- > > Stege Marsh and Kelvin Wave Tides <https://flic.kr/s/aHBqjD8M3p> > > flic.kr <https://flic.kr/s/aHBqjD8M3p> > > Claude Lyneis > > <cmlyneis...> > > https://www.youtube.com/bhsvideodad > > Flickr Photos at https://flic.kr/ps/36it5P > > > > > >
