Date: 9/16/26 1:01 pm From: Paul Hertzel <phertzel...> Subject: Re: [ia-bird] Not a sighting
Steve is right - the IOU Records Committee has almost no choice except
to consider the nutcrackers different birds, different records. It may
be fun to speculate about this, but scientifically, we have to keep an
open mind to the possibilities. So we will undoubtedly treat them as
different records, and if they are all accepted, we will let the Field
Report Editors explain their respective presences in the journal.
Paul Hertzel, Secretary
IOU Bird Records Committee
Mason CIty, IA
On 9/16/2026 12:34 PM, 'Dinsmore, Stephen J [NREM]' via IA-BIRD wrote:
>
> I have a hard time imagining that this isn’t a different Clark’s
> Nutcracker from the one seen in Ames in August. I think most birders
> vastly underestimate the number of unusual birds out there that are
> never detected, while at the same time overestimating our ability to
> detect an individual bird. Consider an example – Smith’s Longspur.
> Virtually all individuals of this species are thought to pass through
> Iowa in spring and fall and the world population is believed to number
> no more than 75,000 individuals. What fraction of that population is
> seen each year in Iowa? Maybe 1-2% in most years, not a high
> proportion. At its simplest this is a probability issue. But short of
> marking the bird in a unique way, or noting some plumage
> characteristic that is unique, we’ll never really know the truth. The
> IOU Records Committee evaluates all reports of rare birds in Iowa and
> is probably in the best position to determine the uniqueness of
> individual records of the same species.
>
> I also fail to see the relevance or utility of using AI to address a
> question it is (a) not at all equipped to answer, and (b) can never be
> answered with certainty without the uniqueness I noted earlier.
> Another in a growing list of examples where AI is 100% wrong…
>
> Steve
>
> **********
>
> Stephen J. Dinsmore
>
> Professor and Chair
>
> Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management
>
> Director, Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture
>
> Iowa State University
>
> 209 Science II
>
> Ames, IA 50011
>
> Phone: 515-294-1348
>
> E-mail: <cootjr...>
>
> Web: https://faculty.sites.iastate.edu/cootjr/ > <https://faculty.sites.iastate.edu/cootjr/> >
> *From:* <ia-bird...> <ia-bird...> *On Behalf
> Of *Clayton Will
> *Sent:* Tuesday, September 15, 2026 10:56 PM
> *To:* IA-BIRD <ia-bird...>
> *Subject:* [ia-bird] Not a sighting
>
> I did an AI search on the odds of a Clark's Nutcracker seen in Ames
> Iowa and Mason City Iowa a few weeks apart being the same bird. The
> answer was 100% the same bird because of the rarity of this bird in
> Iowa. Also that IOU would accept it was the same bird unless there
> were signficant physical differences.
>
> Clayton Will
>
> Madrid
>
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