Date: 9/16/26 10:34 am From: 'Dinsmore, Stephen J [NREM]' via IA-BIRD <ia-bird...> Subject: RE: [ia-bird] Not a sighting
I have a hard time imagining that this isn’t a different Clark’s Nutcracker from the one seen in Ames in August. I think most birders vastly underestimate the number of unusual birds out there that are never detected, while at the same time overestimating our ability to detect an individual bird. Consider an example – Smith’s Longspur. Virtually all individuals of this species are thought to pass through Iowa in spring and fall and the world population is believed to number no more than 75,000 individuals. What fraction of that population is seen each year in Iowa? Maybe 1-2% in most years, not a high proportion. At its simplest this is a probability issue. But short of marking the bird in a unique way, or noting some plumage characteristic that is unique, we’ll never really know the truth. The IOU Records Committee evaluates all reports of rare birds in Iowa and is probably in the best position to determine the uniqueness of individual records of the same species.
I also fail to see the relevance or utility of using AI to address a question it is (a) not at all equipped to answer, and (b) can never be answered with certainty without the uniqueness I noted earlier. Another in a growing list of examples where AI is 100% wrong…
Steve
**********
Stephen J. Dinsmore
Professor and Chair
Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management
Director, Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture
Iowa State University
209 Science II
Ames, IA 50011
Phone: 515-294-1348
E-mail: <cootjr...><mailto:<cootjr...> Web: https://faculty.sites.iastate.edu/cootjr/
From: <ia-bird...> <ia-bird...> On Behalf Of Clayton Will
Sent: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 10:56 PM
To: IA-BIRD <ia-bird...>
Subject: [ia-bird] Not a sighting
I did an AI search on the odds of a Clark's Nutcracker seen in Ames Iowa and Mason City Iowa a few weeks apart being the same bird. The answer was 100% the same bird because of the rarity of this bird in Iowa. Also that IOU would accept it was the same bird unless there were signficant physical differences.
