Date: 6/16/26 7:14 am From: 'Pete Sole' via mbbirds <mbbirds...> Subject: Re: [MBBIRDS] Strong? El Niño and local birding? ...
Thanks again Alavaro!
Pete
On 6/16/26 5:28 AM, <chucao...> wrote:
>
> Pete et al.
>
> Old, but interesting read here from Cornell
>
> https://www.allaboutbirds.org/news/can-birds-help-us-predict-el-nino-weather-patterns/ >
> In a quick search most of the research I could find was on seabirds.
> The landbird work was largely in the East, mainly it has been about
> shifts in food and survival (decreases in reproduction in
> Black-throated Blue Warblers for example). Or about shifts in
> wintering strategy due to warmer winters, mainly birds wintering north
> of usual range, or arriving earlier.
>
> Perhaps the classic paper to read is about the Bristle-thighed
> Curlew invasion of 1998. Free download:
>
> https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/western_birds/vol30/iss3/1/ >
> good birding
>
> Alvaro
>
> Alvaro Jaramillo
>
> <alvaro...> <mailto:<alvaro...> >
> www.alvarosadventures.com <http://www.alvarosadventures.com> >
> *From:*Pete Sole <pete...>
> *Sent:* Tuesday, June 16, 2026 12:01 AM
> *To:* <chucao...>; 'MBB Monterey Bay Birds'
> <mbbirds...>
> *Subject:* Re: [MBBIRDS] Strong? El Niño and local birding? ...
>
> Thanks very much Alvaro!
>
> Very interesting, albeit sobering...
>
> Hum, back to birding, sounds like maybe I should plan on two pelagic
> birding trips this year as the season develops... 🙂
>
> Thanks again Alvaro!
>
> Pete
>
> On 6/15/26 8:16 PM, <chucao...> wrote:
>
> Pete
>
> The reality is that for land birds, there is very little that
> is known about the effects of warm or cold water phases of the
> ENSO. The effects on weather tend to show up later on in the year,
> mostly in winter. I think that any changes in prevailing winds may
> have an effect on land bird migrants, but offhand I don’t think
> much has been written about it.
>
> But for seabirds we know that warm water, particularly very
> warm water, is not good for the food base. Birds then disperse
> away from the areas of anomalous warm water, in this case the
> Galapagos, N Humboldt Current area, and sometimes into the Gulf of
> Panama and point farther north. Since it is water warmth that is
> the key, we have been having non ENSO related warm water episodes
> here for years, the “blob” or marine heat waves. So we have been
> seeing these effects on most years in the recent past. These
> “effects” are – more boobies, more southern murrelets, more Black
> Storm Petrels, presence of Least Storm-Petrels, more Buller’s
> Shearwaters, etc. We are already seeing some of these effects this
> year, early Black Storm-Petrels, early Scripps’s Murrelets,
> boobies are about. It seems that as this gets more extreme to the
> south, some species that are less common here, particularly
> Blue-footed Booby might make a showing, if the south gets warm
> enough, I would be on the lookout for offshore tropicbirds, and
> coastal frigatebirds. But this will depend on how warm it gets to
> our south, and how much food there is here. Marine mammals will
> also make moves northward.
>
> Come out and see is my suggestion. Here are our upcoming
> pelagic dates, including several from Monterey.
>
> https://www.alvarosadventures.com/pelagic-dates-2026.html >
> Look forward to seeing other brainstorming and predictions about
> the El Niño, particularly with respect to migration.
>
> Alvaro
>
> Alvaro Jaramillo
>
> <alvaro...> <mailto:<alvaro...> >
> www.alvarosadventures.com <http://www.alvarosadventures.com> >
> *From:* 'Pete Sole' via mbbirds <mbbirds...>
> <mailto:<mbbirds...> > *Sent:* Monday, June 15, 2026 10:01 PM
> *To:* MBB Monterey Bay Birds <mbbirds...>
> <mailto:<mbbirds...> > *Subject:* [MBBIRDS] Strong? El Niño and local birding? ...
>
> Hi birders,
>
> As the evidence builds for a stronger than usual El Niño year,
> perhaps even developing into a "Super" El Niño 2026-2027 season, I
> wonder if some of the experts have any suggestions, or thoughts
> for local birding? Specifically I wonder if:
>
> * Will some of the bird species from southern warmer waters will
> be pushed up into our area in the Monterey Bay? (I'm thinking
> alcids, boobies, gulls, or others)
> * Will warmer temperature water actually develop in the Monterey
> Bay?
> * Will summer/fall bird migration patterns be impacted? If so, how?
> * Overall, are there any interesting species that we should be
> on the look out for as summer, fall, and winter advance?
>
> If possible, I'd like to keep the conversation around the
> interesting birds that may show up in our region, and strategies
> to see them, rather than delving into the larger view, very real
> potential downsides, that such weather patterns may bring. (Trying
> to think of this as an opportunity to see and appreciate unusual
> birds....)
>
> Your thoughts?
>
> Pete (already thinking about fall birding) Solé
>
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