In a quick search most of the research I could find was on seabirds. The landbird work was largely in the East, mainly it has been about shifts in food and survival (decreases in reproduction in Black-throated Blue Warblers for example). Or about shifts in wintering strategy due to warmer winters, mainly birds wintering north of usual range, or arriving earlier.
Perhaps the classic paper to read is about the Bristle-thighed Curlew invasion of 1998. Free download:
From: Pete Sole <pete...>
Sent: Tuesday, June 16, 2026 12:01 AM
To: <chucao...>; 'MBB Monterey Bay Birds' <mbbirds...>
Subject: Re: [MBBIRDS] Strong? El Niño and local birding? ...
Thanks very much Alvaro!
Very interesting, albeit sobering...
Hum, back to birding, sounds like maybe I should plan on two pelagic birding trips this year as the season develops... 🙂
The reality is that for land birds, there is very little that is known about the effects of warm or cold water phases of the ENSO. The effects on weather tend to show up later on in the year, mostly in winter. I think that any changes in prevailing winds may have an effect on land bird migrants, but offhand I don’t think much has been written about it.
But for seabirds we know that warm water, particularly very warm water, is not good for the food base. Birds then disperse away from the areas of anomalous warm water, in this case the Galapagos, N Humboldt Current area, and sometimes into the Gulf of Panama and point farther north. Since it is water warmth that is the key, we have been having non ENSO related warm water episodes here for years, the “blob” or marine heat waves. So we have been seeing these effects on most years in the recent past. These “effects” are – more boobies, more southern murrelets, more Black Storm Petrels, presence of Least Storm-Petrels, more Buller’s Shearwaters, etc. We are already seeing some of these effects this year, early Black Storm-Petrels, early Scripps’s Murrelets, boobies are about. It seems that as this gets more extreme to the south, some species that are less common here, particularly Blue-footed Booby might make a showing, if the south gets warm enough, I would be on the lookout for offshore tropicbirds, and coastal frigatebirds. But this will depend on how warm it gets to our south, and how much food there is here. Marine mammals will also make moves northward.
Come out and see is my suggestion. Here are our upcoming pelagic dates, including several from Monterey.
From: 'Pete Sole' via mbbirds <mailto:<mbbirds...> <mbbirds...>
Sent: Monday, June 15, 2026 10:01 PM
To: MBB Monterey Bay Birds <mailto:<mbbirds...> <mbbirds...>
Subject: [MBBIRDS] Strong? El Niño and local birding? ...
Hi birders,
As the evidence builds for a stronger than usual El Niño year, perhaps even developing into a "Super" El Niño 2026-2027 season, I wonder if some of the experts have any suggestions, or thoughts for local birding? Specifically I wonder if:
* Will some of the bird species from southern warmer waters will be pushed up into our area in the Monterey Bay? (I'm thinking alcids, boobies, gulls, or others)
* Will warmer temperature water actually develop in the Monterey Bay?
* Will summer/fall bird migration patterns be impacted? If so, how?
* Overall, are there any interesting species that we should be on the look out for as summer, fall, and winter advance?
If possible, I'd like to keep the conversation around the interesting birds that may show up in our region, and strategies to see them, rather than delving into the larger view, very real potential downsides, that such weather patterns may bring. (Trying to think of this as an opportunity to see and appreciate unusual birds....)
