Date: 6/15/26 9:01 pm From: 'Pete Sole' via mbbirds <mbbirds...> Subject: Re: [MBBIRDS] Strong? El Niño and local birding? ...
Thanks very much Alvaro!
Very interesting, albeit sobering...
Hum, back to birding, sounds like maybe I should plan on two pelagic
birding trips this year as the season develops... 🙂
Thanks again Alvaro!
Pete
On 6/15/26 8:16 PM, <chucao...> wrote:
>
> Pete
>
> The reality is that for land birds, there is very little that is
> known about the effects of warm or cold water phases of the ENSO. The
> effects on weather tend to show up later on in the year, mostly in
> winter. I think that any changes in prevailing winds may have an
> effect on land bird migrants, but offhand I don’t think much has been
> written about it.
>
> But for seabirds we know that warm water, particularly very warm
> water, is not good for the food base. Birds then disperse away from
> the areas of anomalous warm water, in this case the Galapagos, N
> Humboldt Current area, and sometimes into the Gulf of Panama and point
> farther north. Since it is water warmth that is the key, we have been
> having non ENSO related warm water episodes here for years, the “blob”
> or marine heat waves. So we have been seeing these effects on most
> years in the recent past. These “effects” are – more boobies, more
> southern murrelets, more Black Storm Petrels, presence of Least
> Storm-Petrels, more Buller’s Shearwaters, etc. We are already seeing
> some of these effects this year, early Black Storm-Petrels, early
> Scripps’s Murrelets, boobies are about. It seems that as this gets
> more extreme to the south, some species that are less common here,
> particularly Blue-footed Booby might make a showing, if the south gets
> warm enough, I would be on the lookout for offshore tropicbirds, and
> coastal frigatebirds. But this will depend on how warm it gets to our
> south, and how much food there is here. Marine mammals will also make
> moves northward.
>
> Come out and see is my suggestion. Here are our upcoming pelagic
> dates, including several from Monterey.
>
> https://www.alvarosadventures.com/pelagic-dates-2026.html >
> Look forward to seeing other brainstorming and predictions about the
> El Niño, particularly with respect to migration.
>
> Alvaro
>
> Alvaro Jaramillo
>
> <alvaro...> <mailto:<alvaro...> >
> www.alvarosadventures.com <http://www.alvarosadventures.com> >
> *From:*'Pete Sole' via mbbirds <mbbirds...>
> *Sent:* Monday, June 15, 2026 10:01 PM
> *To:* MBB Monterey Bay Birds <mbbirds...>
> *Subject:* [MBBIRDS] Strong? El Niño and local birding? ...
>
> Hi birders,
>
> As the evidence builds for a stronger than usual El Niño year, perhaps
> even developing into a "Super" El Niño 2026-2027 season, I wonder if
> some of the experts have any suggestions, or thoughts for local
> birding? Specifically I wonder if:
>
> * Will some of the bird species from southern warmer waters will be
> pushed up into our area in the Monterey Bay? (I'm thinking alcids,
> boobies, gulls, or others)
> * Will warmer temperature water actually develop in the Monterey Bay?
> * Will summer/fall bird migration patterns be impacted? If so, how?
> * Overall, are there any interesting species that we should be on
> the look out for as summer, fall, and winter advance?
>
> If possible, I'd like to keep the conversation around the interesting
> birds that may show up in our region, and strategies to see them,
> rather than delving into the larger view, very real potential
> downsides, that such weather patterns may bring. (Trying to think of
> this as an opportunity to see and appreciate unusual birds....)
>
> Your thoughts?
>
> Pete (already thinking about fall birding) Solé
>
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