Focus on the predicted radar pattern. I would not trust the locations in individual showers, even at very short lead times, but the overall pattern can be useful. You'll have a choice of half a dozen models on this one site, so you can see what the consensus is.
So far, the forecasts range from nothing in the Lower Trail area, to a few showers. Expect any showers that form to move with time, sticking over any one spot for less than half an hour. Trying to outthink them may be a losing proposition, even an hour before the start of the trip.
Just and old meteorologist thinking out loud here, for what it's worth.
Best of luck to all the Cerulean chasers,
George
________________________________
From: State College (PA) Bird Club <SCBIRDCL...> on behalf of Nick Bolgiano <nickbolgiano...>
Sent: Wednesday, May 14, 2025 1:58 PM
To: <SCBIRDCL...> <SCBIRDCL...>
Subject: Re: Cerulean Warbler Lower Trail Field Trip
I suggest that you check radar and weather forecast before heading to the Lower Trail field trip tomorrow. There remains a chance of showers. If the rain is light, the trip will be a go. If it is raining more heavily with a pessimistic forecast, it will be canceled.
On Wed, May 14, 2025 at 1:38 PM Kathy Bechdel <0000d165c6a818d5-dmarc-request...><mailto:<0000d165c6a818d5-dmarc-request...>> wrote:
Just a reminder that the Cerulean Warbler Field Trip, originally scheduled for today, May 14, has been rescheduled for tomorrow, May 15. All other details remain the same.
Please consider carpooling and parking close together, as the parking lot area is limited.
7:30 - 9:30 am
Search for Cerulean Warblers on the Lower Trail, Blair County
