Date: 5/14/19 8:31 am From: Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes <cth4...> Subject: [cayugabirds-l] Weather Forecasting Tools
I was having an offline conversation with Laura Stenzler and Ton Schat about what days might be the best in the forecast for their personal 24-hour bird-a-thon. Laura thought it would be helpful to share some of the information below with the broader Cayugabirds-l group!
Upon initial review of the forecasts yesterday, the weekend was looking good. Now, upon review, the forecasts have changed. The warming trend that was shaping up looks like instead it will be blocked by a northern flow of air coming down from Canada and the Great Lakes starting Saturday morning. One forecast model shows the warm air hitting a hard brick wall by Sunday as far south as a line stretching from around Indianapolis through Columbus and southeast to Washington DC. That being said, both models show a southern airflow from Thursday night through Friday morning; albeit chilly, the air will be from the correct direction to assist migrants attempting to leap-frog their way north.
I use a combination of weather sites to make inferences (constantly changing…).
Magic Seaweed is one such site. Making sure the time zone is correctly set (top left option), I choose my region (bottom left menu) and alternate between wind and pressure (bottom right options; toggle on/off multiple panes at a time, or just one pane).
Lots of custom configuration and tools available, probably the most versatile site.
The following link has a pin drop positioned approximately over Ithaca with Temperature selected. Slide the bottom bar across to view the forecast. Different models can be selected at bottom right (NAM is most accurate and short-term, ECMWF and GFS are two longer-term models). Top right allows you to select different element views (wind, temperature, rain, etc.).
I found it most interesting to view Temperature element view for the particular interest of bird migration. The wind always shows as moving white lines. As you slide the forecast bar across the bottom, you can see how there is a strong line of demarcation that develops by Saturday morning, the one I described above. That may hinder migration coming in from the South.
Based upon the current forecast models, it looks like there could be good fallout conditions along the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines, or even here in Ithaca as well. We shall see—forecasts are dynamically changing by the minute.
Hope this helps!
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