Date: 12/30/18 4:33 pm
From: Craig Miller <gismiller...>
Subject: [obol] Re: Winter Barn Swallow in Central Oregon
I stand corrected - the first Black Pheobe record was of a bird at the
Wetlands on August 1 of this year! Maybe the same bird, maybe not...

Craig

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On Sun, Dec 30, 2018 at 1:21 PM Craig Miller <gismiller...> wrote:

> Hi all,
>
> This ongoing discussion has been interesting. To add to everything that
> has been said, Crook County's first Black Phoebe (discovered last month at
> Crooked River Wetlands) continues to be in the area, and I observed several
> flying insects (midges?) during yesterday's hike there. The Phoebe was
> actively flycatching along the river.
>
> I think the generally higher temperatures are allowing more insect
> survival, which in turn allow insectivores such as swallows and
> flycatchers to be able to survive further north than their recent historic
> range.
>
> Craig Miller
> Bend
>
>
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> On Sun, Dec 30, 2018 at 1:10 PM <clearwater...> wrote:
>
>> The attached plot (produced from the WestMap climate analysis website)
>> might be helpful for considering the effects of climate change on winter
>> survival of wayward Barn Swallows in central Oregon.
>>
>> The plot shows mean temperatures for the month of January in Deschutes
>> County, from 1920 through 2017.
>>
>> During the 70-year period from 1920 through 1990, the mean January
>> temperature exceeded 34 F only twice (in 1934 and 1953). Since 1990 --
>> approximately when the predicted effects of anthropogenic climate change
>> began to become discernible from background variations -- this value has
>> been exceeded six times. Four of those times were in the past seven years.
>>
>> In other words, relatively warm months of January have been much more
>> frequent in the past couple of decades.
>>
>> Cold months of January have also been less frequent. The mean January
>> temperature has dipped below 27 F only three times since 1990 (1 in 6
>> years), whereas prior to 1990 this happened in about 1 out of 4 years.
>>
>> --
>> Joel Geier
>> Camp Adair area north of Corvallis
>>
>>

 
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