Date: 4/14/18 6:27 pm
From: David Nicosia <daven102468...>
Subject: [nysbirds-l] Fwd: [cayugabirds-l] Update on Weather and front
---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: david nicosia <daven1024...>
Date: Sat, Apr 14, 2018 at 8:52 PM
Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] Update on Weather and front
To: Cayuga birds <CAYUGABIRDS-L...>, <broomebirds...>,
David Nicosia <daven102468...>


Well, the front set up farther north than expected and so did the heavier
precipitation today. So we had a shallow front across central NY today. The
surface front was in far northern PA and the front at 5000 feet (roughly)
was actually across Lake Ontario. So north of this in Canada was the main
precipitation shield and hence no fallout conditions down here. Central NY
saw chilly conditions with northerly winds between the surface and a few
thousand feet with southwest to west winds above this. Overnight many birds
were migrating north so presumably birds that migrate higher than a few
thousand feet up kept going into southern Canada on the southwest winds and
stopped where the rain was. In reality the bird migration likely was sorted
out based on how high each species or even individuals migrate. To get a
fallout we need a solid batch of precipitation which typically has cloud
tops around 10 to 20 feet which is a wall for the migrants. Since this
precipitation set up farther north than predicted is why it wasn't that
impressive. However, winds between 5000 and 15000 feet were strong from the
west-southwest and maybe this could be why the western meadowlark showed
up? It is also interesting that in western NY the front was a bit deeper
and could explain why Jody saw more migrants. Anyway, always learning.

Tonight we will see south winds aloft, north winds close to the ground.
Precipitation again will be across northern NY. More arrivals will be the
norm. I think once the cold front comes through Monday with heavier rain we
will see more migrants.

Thanks and good birding to all!
Dave

On Friday, April 13, 2018, 7:33:30 AM EDT, David Nicosia <
<daven102468...> wrote:


Last night there was massive migration in the eastern U.S that stopped in
northern NY state where there was a rather diffuse front. Not sure if there
will be any significant concentration of migrants. This morning as of this
writing the front at the surface is across the northern counties of PA and
then drops southeast south of the Catskills. At about 5000 feet up the
front is farther north roughly from Buffalo to south of Albany but again it
is not a very sharp front yet. At about 10000 feet up the winds are from
the west and its hard to find any front. So what this means is that birds
that migrate between 5000 and 10000 feet and up probably will keep going
unless they encounter precipitation. At this point there isn't much
precipitation near NY or in the northeast U.S. Once the storm intensifies
in the midwest and pulls east, the front at all levels up to 10-15 thousand
feet will sharpen up and precipitation will spread east.

Right now it looks like the surface front will lift back north to the
southern tier of NY state today but the precipitation will stream across
northern NY so I wouldn't expect too much just arrivals and some pockets of
migrants.

For tonight, the precipitation and associated front aloft shifts south and
looks to be setting up from about Buffalo to Albany and it will be raining
north of this. The surface front will actually drop south into northern PA
but it will be shallow as the precipitation will be farther north. So I
would expect best conditions across upstate NY north of the southern tier,
which includes the Finger Lakes area, and Buffalo to Albany.

Its hard enough to predict the weather so trying to predict what the birds
will do is even harder. Hopefully some of this will pan out.

Good Luck!
Dave Nicosia
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