Date: 4/13/18 4:33 am From: David Nicosia <daven102468...> Subject: [nysbirds-l] Update on Weather and front
Last night there was massive migration in the eastern U.S that stopped in northern NY state where there was a rather diffuse front. Not sure if there will be any significant concentration of migrants. This morning as of this writing the front at the surface is across the northern counties of PA and then drops southeast south of the Catskills. At about 5000 feet up the front is farther north roughly from Buffalo to south of Albany but again it is not a very sharp front yet. At about 10000 feet up the winds are from the west and its hard to find any front. So what this means is that birds that migrate between 5000 and 10000 feet and up probably will keep going unless they encounter precipitation. At this point there isn't much precipitation near NY or in the northeast U.S. Once the storm intensifies in the midwest and pulls east, the front at all levels up to 10-15 thousand feet will sharpen up and precipitation will spread east.
Right now it looks like the surface front will lift back north to the southern tier of NY state today but the precipitation will stream across northern NY so I wouldn't expect too much just arrivals and some pockets of migrants.
For tonight, the precipitation and associated front aloft shifts south and looks to be setting up from about Buffalo to Albany and it will be raining north of this. The surface front will actually drop south into northern PA but it will be shallow as the precipitation will be farther north. So I would expect best conditions across upstate NY north of the southern tier, which includes the Finger Lakes area, and Buffalo to Albany.
Its hard enough to predict the weather so trying to predict what the birds will do is even harder. Hopefully some of this will pan out.